The seasoned viewer of the National Basketball Association recognizes that game action during the final weeks of the regular season is different from what the early season games offer. After the All-Star break, with most of the playoff and lottery spots already decided, teams and players shift gears and the contests have more of a pickup game feel to them. But fans like scoring and the games at the end of the regular season have plenty of that. It’s always nice to see players not normally given an opportunity to play significant minutes take advantage when it finally happens, and the results can include some rather impressive individual game statistics. But a closer look at the circumstances tells us why NBA late-season stats are deceiving.
NINE FIFTY-POINT GAMES IN MARCH 2022
As the 2021-22 NBA season neared its conclusion, we saw several high-scoring individual performances from some of the league’s top players. Of the 20 games where a player “dropped” 50 or more points during the recently-completed regular season, nine of those games were played in March 2022, and one, Kevin Durant’s 55-point outburst against the Atlanta Hawks, came in April. And while most of the 50-plus point scorers were also NBA All-Stars, Detroit’s promising second-year player, Saddiq Bey, posted a 50-point game of his own in March as well.
There were even two 60-point performances. Minnesota’s Karl Anthony Towns and Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving accomplished that feat on consecutive days in mid-March.
SOME PLAYERS JUST NEED AN OPPORTUNITY, BUT…
The league’s top players dominating the list of the league’s highest-scoring games is not surprising. But as we witnessed once again in 2022, with load management still being a thing and with little to play for other than playoff seeding or the opportunity to sneak into the play-in tournament, there were some huge statistical games from unexpected sources during the last few weeks of the regular season.
Rotation players like the LA Clippers’ Robert Covington, the LA Lakers’ Talen Horton-Tucker, and Portland’s Josh Hart each scored at least 40 points in a single game in March or April. Second-unit players like New York’s Obi Toppin had scoring games of 35 and 42 points in the team’s final two games, while Immanuel Quickley posted two triple-doubles in April.
Then all heck broke loose on April 10th, the final day of the NBA’s 2021-22 regular season. The LA Clippers beat the Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points. The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers combined for 287 points in an overtime game. Eight teams scored over 130 points in regulation time. The Lakers’ Austin Reaves, and Memphis’ John Konchar–nice players both, but hardly household names–each posted a triple-double. In addition to Obi Toppin’s 42-point performance, Chicago’s defensive specialist Patrick Williams scored 35 points, and Milwaukee’s seldom-used rookie Sandro Mamukelashvili scored 28 points, bringing his season scoring average up to 3.8 points per game. And Kevin Love scored 32 points in 15 minutes against Milwaukee.
Sometimes, players just need an opportunity. At other times, the players guarding those players just want to go home.
THE OVERREACTIONS ARE REAL
Some of the aforementioned performances have resulted in some interesting fan takes on what that portends for next season. Based on some late-season individual game performances, several players who struggled to see court time during the season but were able to get increased minutes during the last few weeks and now being touted as definite starting material next season and beyond. And in some cases, these arguments are valid. But not always.
But those increased numbers (scoring, assists, etc) still have to be considered in context. Teams with secured playoff spots in March and April will not always throw their best players out there in games without post-season implications. The occasional team might attempt to hold onto a spot in the standings for homecourt advantage later on, but few teams are willing to risk an injury to a top player in a meaningless game. Still, other teams, with little to play for standings-wise, simply just stop playing at a certain point. This provides an opportunity for the seldom-used player to shine for a few weeks late in the regular season.
Likewise, top players on teams that are into “deferred winning” for the chance at a higher draft pick in June’s NBA Draft, will not see much court time during the closing weeks, giving opportunities to players who sat and watched for much of the season.
It’s a long season, and teams are playing out the schedule. Bad teams are ready for the regular season to conclude; playoff teams are anxious for the “real” games to begin. Defensive intensity goes down (way down), scoring goes up. Games after the All-Star Weekend strongly resemble games played DURING All-Star Weekend. And as the end of the regular season approaches, the chances of going against an opponent’s normal rotation of players is greatly reduced. Hardly the scenario for long-term decisions to be made.
BUT HERE’S THE REAL PROBLEM
Let’s say that everyone clamoring for March and April’s unexpected standout performers to start or have increased roles next season is correct. The problem, as always, is the numbers game. Even in a league with 30 teams, there are simply more players who can produce at a high level than there are spots to fill them with. Those increased starting spots and increased minutes mean someone else is losing their gig. Players with expensive, long-term deals aren’t going anywhere, and the owners (in most cases) aren’t going to pay them to not play. But those open spots have to come from somewhere.
It’s impossible to make an NBA roster. It’s even more difficult (whatever “more difficult than impossible” is called) to land a spot in the rotation of one of the NBA’s 30 teams. There are only 150 NBA starting gigs available in the world, and about the same number of rotation spots. The game is global and now the international player is also in the running for those spots. Someone is always coming to supplant the player holding one of those spots. Think of how much of a badass you have to be just to be in the position to compete for one of those spots, and how intense the fight is to keep one.
SPEAKING OF TARENCE KINSEY
About 15 years ago, an undrafted NBA rookie named Tarence Kinsey (University of South Carolina) earned a roster spot with the Memphis Grizzlies. After spending most of the season playing limited minutes, he finally got his opportunity late in the regular season as the Grizzlies were in the running for the league’s worst record in the 2006-07 season. Kinsey made the most of his opportunity, averaging about 19 points and two steals per game over the final 13 games. The sustained performance must have had the Grizzlies’ fan base excited about Kinsey’s prospects for the following season and going forward.
The following season, Kinsey played 11 games for Memphis before being released and playing over in Turkey. Then he suited up for 50 games for Cleveland in 2008-09 before spending the next 12 seasons playing in Europe. No disgrace there, but perhaps his NBA story would have been different had he latched on with a different NBA team. There are many players with NBA hopes who have similar stories. There simply isn’t enough room for everyone.
PUMPING THE BRAKES
NBA regular-season contests played in March and April are different from games played in the first few months of the season, and both are different than postseason games in terms of intensity and personnel on the floor. Top players who would normally play in November might rest their aching bodies for games in March and April if there are no playoff implications involved. A team suddenly out of the running for a playoff spot might give more minutes to younger players who weren’t rotation players when the games had importance.
These scenarios and others determine which lineup of players are on the floor as the regular-season winds down. So while it’s easy to assume the statistics from the last 15 games of the season are a predictor of a player’s future success, it may not be the case given the level of competition, as well as the intensity of it. But even if it is, don’t be too shocked if the player doesn’t get a chance to show off the skills on a regular basis right away. And the differences in the level of competition between early and late-season games can’t be overlooked.
Those late-season NBA stats can be deceiving.
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash
