The NBA season is a marathon. Training camps, four or five pre-season games, an 82-game regular-season with an All-Star break tossed in, and four rounds of post-season play make the NBA as much about attrition as talent and coaching. Only the players can tell us what that grind is physically and mentally like. Then there are the fans, and from this fan’s perspective, the NBA calendar is easier to digest if broken into stages. The ten stages of NBA now cover the entire calendar year as it is a year-round event, including the months when there are no games taking place.
1) TRAINING CAMP AND PRESEASON GAMES
In a normal year, it begins in late September with the anticipation of the start of training camps, the trade rumors involving disgruntled veterans, the vows of commitment to defense from coaches, and predictions of players projected to break out. We get frustrated at the lack of details regarding training camps. We want to know who sparkled, and which rookies might earn a rotation spot. We want to know who’s out of shape, who’s about to get cut, who gets his rookie deal extended. and who’s earned a two-way deal. Most of the players interviewed appear more optimistic about their team’s chances (even if they don’t really believe it) than the fans who support them.
The pre-season begins in early October. We overreact to wins and losses that come as a result of rotations we’ll never see once the real games start. The networks hype upcoming televised pre-season matchups (“A rematch of the Eastern Conference Final!”), then on game day, we tune in only to learn the top players are being rested. We then wonder why players are being rested when the season hasn’t even started yet.
2) THE EARLY GOING
It’s Opening Day. The results of the first game in late October are interpreted as predictors for the remainder of the season. The first couple of weeks will feature unexpected individual and team performances, good and bad, that have little chance of holding up. Lottery picks are labeled as “busts” during the first week after a bad game or two; late-first and early-second round picks are considered “steals” after a good game or two. We’re already drawing up lopsided trades to bring the disgruntled superstar to our team. Our team starts slow, we say, “It’s early!” Another highly-regarded team loses a few games early, we say, “They’re in trouble!”
3) WATER SEEKS ITS LEVEL
Now about six to eight weeks into the regular season, the league standings begin to take form as expected, but there are always a few exceptions. Some teams perform better than anticipated, others start slowly and still, others have injuries to key players they can’t overcome. And now there are also covid-related absences to consider. But overall the stronger teams have already begun to make their move to the top of the standings in each conference.
By now at least one coach has paid for a slow start with his gig, and others are getting the side-eye from inpatient general managers, beat writers, and fan bases. By mid-December, some of the high-performing rookies are approaching “the wall” rendering them powerless after playing at least as many games as they did in a full high school and college season, including lots of travel and carrying their veteran’s luggage. And even this early in the season, top players begin to load manage, especially during one leg of back-to-back games, sitting out the one deemed most winnable without the player.
Meanwhile, once again the basketball world eagerly awaits the return of Zion Williamson sometime in December. And there’s always a team whose presence on the Christmas Day national television schedule is questioned.
Even this early, at least half of the ten teams with no shot at qualifying for the play-in games have already become clear. Some of those teams, however, are still interesting to watch as their young players develop.
4) THE ALL-STAR BREAK
As we fly through January and early February and the injuries mount and the rookies pass out, teams look forward to a few days off for the All-Star break. The roster is never without controversy as there are more players deserving than there are spots available. Always referred to as the halfway point, the All-Star break arrives when most teams have already completed over 60 percent of their regular-season schedule, the top teams are already planning how to preserve and strengthen their rosters in preparation for postseason play, and veteran players on rebuilding teams look to negotiate buyouts and land a spot with a contender. The fan-generated unrealistic trade ideas continue, with their favorite team somehow landing another team’s top player without giving up a starter in return.
At this point, we’ll have a pretty good read on who will comfortably qualify for the postseason. During All-Star Weekend itself, the Three-Point Shootout seldom disappoints, but the Slam Dunk Contest is now one the top players avoid. The owners don’t mind. No one wants to see their star player attempting a dunk over an 18-wheeler. With the passage of time, it has become more difficult to come up with dunks that haven’t been done before, and the judging remains controversial. It’s time to rethink this one. Open it to the public. Think American Idol. Regionalize it, Narrow it down to five or six competitors, and bring them to All-Star Weekend.
5) MARCH MADNESS
This is the part where even the NBA acknowledges there are no more big games remaining on the schedule. Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith leave the NBA studio to become part of the March Madness crew while the basketball focus turns to the first few days of the NCAA Division 1 Basketball tournaments in mid-March. We get bombarded with those commercials with Chuck, Spike Lee, and Samuel L. Jackson. With little to play for other than seeding, load management becomes more brazen around the NBA while most teams play out the string. Folks buying tickets to see marquee visiting players play their one game of the season in their town do so at their own risk.
6) THE MAD DASH TO QUALIFY
With the new play-in feature now a fixture, teams in the bottom-third of their conference standings now scramble to reach at least tenth place (if they so desire, that is) and a spot in the tournament. Teams in the top portion of their conference standings try to secure at least a sixth-place finish, thus avoiding having to “play in” to the actual postseason. These are, in fact, the teams who are involved in the most important regular-season games during the latter portion of the season, although history suggests these teams have little shot at an extended playoff run.
Sure, there’s the occasional national television contest hyped as “a potential NBA Finals preview” or “a possible conference finals matchup” but those tend to flame out due to the absence of key players. Otherwise, this is a time for rookies who didn’t see much playing time earlier in the season, as well as G League callups, to make a case for more playing time.
7) THE SECOND PRESEASON
The last few weeks of the NBA regular season, where several teams at the bottom of the standings simply stop playing and the top teams ration the minutes of players expected to play key roles in postseason play, are really the start of the NBA’s second preseason. As in the regular preseason in October, teams are making preparations for different things. Everyone’s preparing for the future, be it short-term or long-term. For fans who like offense, this stretch of games is for them as defensive intensity drops significantly.
This is a difficult part of the season for the NBA fan. Eagerly anticipating the return to games that matter, the last few weeks of the NBA regular season fall short in that department. Toss in the first round of the NBA Playoffs where, historically, the 7th and 8th seeds have faced nearly impossible odds against the 2nd and 1st seeds, respectively. In most cases, those series are mere tuneups for the higher-seeded teams, and Game Four of series that are 3-0 in favor of the higher seed tend to be lackluster. Teams down 3-0 don’t come back to win series, 7th seeds don’t win series against 2nd seeds, and 8th seeds don’t beat 1st seeds. If the lower seeds are young teams on the rise, it’s exciting for their fans, but the outcome is a near-certainty.
On occasion, the series between the 4th and 5th seeds offer some suspense. Otherwise, the wait continues for meaningful basketball games and competitive playoff series.
8) FINALLY, GAMES THAT MATTER
This is where things get serious. The conference semi-finals are ideally where the playoffs should begin, but then you’d have even more meaningless regular-season games. Even the conference semi-finals have mismatches at times, but the competition is usually ferocious at this point. The last three rounds of NBA playoff action come with star power and more defensive intensity than the regular season, though last season featured several teams missing their top players as they advanced into the later rounds. This, in spite of the strategic resting of those players throughout the season.
It is true that some fans lose interest at this point of the season if their favorite team is no longer in the running. The most recent finals pairing Milwaukee and Phoenix suffered from low television ratings. The basketball was fine but as unfair as it might be, neither participant is considered one of the league’s glamor franchises, and Lebron wasn’t involved, nor were the Golden State Warriors. But for those who stick around to watch there is always a compelling storyline to follow. If crowning champions in cities like Toronto and Milwaukee in two of the last three seasons is bad for the sport, then the league should never consider expansion again.
9) THE FUN PART (DRAFT, FREE AGENCY, SUMMER LEAGUE)
In mid-June, the NBA champion has been crowned, and now the attention turns to the other 29 teams and the potential roster moves they’ll make in an attempt to win one themselves. In contrast to when the actual games are being played, this time of year gives everyone a chance to dream. The NBA Draft in late June handled correctly gives all 30 teams, regardless of market size, an opportunity chance to make roster upgrades over time. Not all draft classes are the same, but every so often that difference-maker comes in and gives a struggling franchise a lift.
The free agency period begins July 1st and despite the many rumors that fly around, only a handful of franchises have a shot at landing the most coveted free agents in a given summer, while most teams can’t even get meetings. Still, a very shrewd GM in a smaller market can improve his team by signing lesser-known talent that fits the roster. The first few days of free agency are always interesting, and is now such an event there is media programming on the first few days devoted strictly to player signings.
Finally, the Las Vegas Summer League for rookies and free agents runs for a couple of weeks in July and gives us another opportunity to jump to conclusions, both positive and negative, about 19-year-old rookies. A good summer league performance will automatically presume a spot in their team’s rotation once the real season starts, even though most of the summer league participants making up the competition won’t end up on NBA rosters. The first pick overall doesn’t dare have a bad first game, or they’re instantly called a bust and compared unfavorably with other rookies performing better on that stage. Unfortunately, even the NBA Summer League, with its intense scheduling, has its share of load management, particularly with the players most fans want to see, and the interest wanes after the first week.
10) THE INTERMINABLE WAIT
Once the Summer League nears its end and the free-agent signings slow down, there is a very noticeable lull in the action. With no games to talk about and with most of the top free agents already choosing their destinations, the months of August and September give basketball fans the opportunity to turn on one another. Any basketball subject that can possibly be debated, is debated. From all-time lists to video game rankings to the greatest ever to proposed trades, the basketball debate fills the void of the off-season. With nothing to look forward to but the release of next season’s schedule, with no coaching decisions to second-guess, and with no player performances to critique, we beat each other up until training camp opens and the preseason starts again.
Then we start over. Basketball has one of the longest seasons of all professional sports and is now discussed year-round. Hopefully, we haven’t ruined any friendships over the summer arguing over whether the 105th ranked player is better than the 106th ranked player.
After all, it’s just basketball.
