The NBA’s Post-All-Star Break Problem

The National Basketball Association is in a good place. It is globally popular, has recognizable stars, a healthy television contract and is looking to capitalize on the slowly declining popularity of baseball to improve its standing among the major sports. Even the off-season, while nowhere near as active as baseball’s so-called Hot Stove League, manages to create some buzz among diehards, especially with the draft, free agency and trade rumors. But clearly–and to its credit the league has already acknowledged this–the NBA’s post-All-Star break problem where seemingly more than a few teams aren’t putting forth their best efforts to win games needs repair.

THE NEW MATH: ONE-HALF EQUALS 70 PERCENT

Somehow we used to get the impression that league All-Star games accompanied a break for teams that also marked the approximate halfway point of the regular season. For the 2017-18 season, the NBA’s All Star break hit right around Valentine’s Day,  and most teams had already played about 70 percent of their regular-season schedules. The teams with no hope of post-season play had already been decided while–upon returning from the break–the primary goal of the top teams is to avoid serious injury to its top players and to make sure they aren’t burned out come playoff time.

Unfortunately, the goal of the teams with no playoff hopes is to increase their chances of landing one of the top players in June’s NBA Draft, chances increased, ironically, by losing more games. This is a management goal, of course, for it’s hard to imagine most NBA players favoring a scenario where the team brings in a player who could jeopardize his spot in the rotation or even the roster. But the franchises are merely taking advantage of the rules as they stand, which means it’s time to change the rules.

A RARE PLAYOFF RACE SAVES THE 2017-18 REGULAR SEASON, BUT…

Fortunately, the NBA’s Western Conference is providing some intrigue we rarely see this late in the regular-season, with several teams bunched together in a battle to avoid finishing below the eighth spot and not enough room for all of them to qualify for the post-season. The Eastern Conference’s eight playoff participants were mathematically confirmed about a week ago, but realistically, we’ve known the teams for some time now.

Once the 30 NBA teams return from the All-Star break, we already have a general idea of who most the playoff participants will be, and with each team having about 25 games remaining and the knowledge that playoff contenders are rewarded for winning (additional home games) and non-playoff contenders are rewarded for losing (enhanced draft lottery odds), no one should be surprised at some of the ugliness we see in March and April. And without the Western Conference drama, we’d see many more teams resting their players as the schedule winds down, another issue the league has to find a way of addressing.

MORE NEW MATH: TWENTY IS GREATER THAN FORTY

As long as the NBA continues to reward the teams with the worst regular-season win-loss records with more ping pong balls at the Draft Lottery and increased odds at landing the top players entering that summer’s draft, we’ll continue to see teams basically stop playing during the final weeks of the season. As long as it’s better to be a 20-win team than it is to be a 40-win team (“The worst thing you can be in this league is a 40-win team.”), we’ll see a team like Memphis–last in the league in scoring at 99 points per game–rack up 130 points yesterday against Detroit in a game that likely neither franchise wanted to win, and we’ll see a team like the 24-win Orlando Magic  allow an offensively-challenged team like the Charlotte Hornets to come into their building and score 137  regulation-time points on Friday.

SO THE ANDERSONS GOT TICKETS…AT THEIR OWN RISK

Yesterday we also saw the Knicks–as pointed out by their television announcer– field a lineup against Milwaukee featuring their afterthought of a fourth point guard, Jarrett Jack, and four guys who’d seldom played during the season while the game’s outcome was still in doubt. (As a side note, the paying customer didn’t get to see the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle soreness), either.)  And we’ll see a team like the Los Angeles Clippers with their defensive-minded coach, Doc Rivers, give up 134 points the day after being eliminated from playoff contention.

One of the Knicks’ centers, Enes Kanter, frustrated with the team’s losing ways, was recently quoted as saying that the current players weren’t interested in trying to get better draft position for the next year, the fans are purchasing expensive tickets to see the veterans play, and if a team wanted to develop younger players, this should take place in the G-League. He has a point, but if your veterans aren’t good enough to win games or are clearly just playing out the string, they shouldn’t be on the court, either.

In addition to that, there’s no way a league can offer its best product if, for a given contest, only one team is trying to win or both teams are trying to lose. It’s a real dilemma.

ONE WAY TO REPAIR THE NBA’s POST-ALL-STAR BREAK PROBLEM

To eradicate this annual mad rush to the bottom of the standings, to eliminate more instances of poorly-chosen words from team owners and upper management types that can be interpreted as admissions of tanking, to protect the consumer paying top dollar to see a competitive contest and players they recognize, to add some importance to games in March and April involving the non-playoff contenders, and since there’s no mechanism for relegating the worst teams to a lower league (like soccer has), the league should adopt a policy where each lottery team’s win-loss record over its last, say, 25 games determines the number of ping pong balls it gets for the draft lottery (Better to have it decide draft position and eliminate the lottery altogether, but it’s a television event, so scratch that thought.).

Sure there’d be some iniquities involved like scheduling–for example, if a team has 18 of their final 25 games on the road–but that stuff can be tweaked. The general idea is to destroy the idea that losing down the stretch is better than winning, and everything that results from it. And as we’ve seen, franchises that are annual participants in the lottery don’t necessarily draft their way out of the doldrums–even with high picks–if they are a) unlucky or b) don’t know what they’re doing.

LOSING ON PURPOSE DOESN’T BUILD CHARACTER

A team making an honest effort to earn a playoff spot and misses out shouldn’t be penalized by selecting in the middle of the first round of the draft, and a team that wins 20 games–whether its on purpose or not–shouldn’t be rewarded with a top pick. All the talk of competitive balance is no longer relevant, not with the top players joining forces when their contracts are up and most seasons, the number of legitimate title contenders can be counted on three fingers or less, anyway. If that 20-win team’s bad season was largely a result of injuries, presumably those guys are coming back the next year and the team will still have a lottery pick, just not a high one.

This is certainly not the perfect, foolproof solution, but any discussion of fixing the NBA’s late regular-season issues must begin and end with the premise that losing (at this level) should not be rewarded more than winning.

It’s a start.