The NBA Draft Is A Real Lottery

Yet another coronation-capped NBA season has come and gone, and we’ve reached what is fast becoming one of the more interesting parts NBA season, especially if you live in an area where the playoffs are just something to be viewed on television with no local rooting interest. Thursday’s NBA Draft will once again reveal the names of the 60 draft-eligible young men — many just a year removed from high school and about to become millionaires overnight — who overcame tremendous odds through a  combination of hard work, quality coaching and God-given talent to be considered the best in their class. The competition becomes more intense as these athletes advance through each level of the sport, and these guys are the ones still standing. Forget about that hour-long, ping-pong ballish, Price Waterhouse-supervised, behind closed doors made-for-television event we get in May to determine the draft order known as the NBA Draft Lottery; the NBA Draft is a real lottery with lottery-type odds.

CONGRATUATIONS, NBA DRAFTEE. YOU’VE JUST WON THE LOTTERY.

When I was coaching youth basketball a couple of decades ago, as an icebreaker at the beginning of each new season I’d always ask my players (usually 9 or 10 years old) what they wanted to be when they grew up. In most cases, at least half would say they wanted to play in the NBA, and there may have been others who wanted to say it but were too embarrassed. And this was before the money got really crazy — back then we couldn’t believe the contract the Atlanta Hawks’ Jon Koncak signed in 1989 (6 years, $13 million), which would be veteran’s minimum pocket change these days. This was also before the game’s popularity really exploded globally. So nowadays, the competition goes far beyond US borders — one only need to look just slightly north and see how many NBA players are coming out of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

LET’S BE HONEST HERE…

In sum, the player pool decreases with age from millions of NBA hopefuls of all ages around the world to a couple hundred potential draftees and free agents competing for less than 100 NBA job openings in a given year. And many of those who manage to make the cut will have to fight off a new wave of skilled youngsters and established veterans coming after their roster spots every season.  If you were to walk into any amateur level coaching situation from youth league through college and proclaim — sight unseen — that no one in the room is NBA-bound, you’d be right. Now you’d probably get pushback from some of the parents and earn a reputation as a killer of dreams, but on the very off-chance you’re wrong, well now you’re now talking about a great story. But the fact remains that you can find millions of young athletes worldwide who aspire to play in the NBA, but only about 500 get to actually experience it in a given season, and this includes those who stick around for 10-plus seasons.

LOTS OF TALENT AROUND, BUT THE NUMBERS GAME…

So we are talking about some lottery-type odds when speaking of the opportunity to play in the NBA, or anywhere at the professional level.  Not sure of the exact numbers, but even some of the young student-athletes we become familiar with during their college years are never heard from again unless we follow international hoops, and most times not even then. Being able to land a gig in the G-League or somewhere overseas — some even uprooting their families and landing in perilous spots while not knowing the language —  is nothing to sneeze at. We’re still talking about a rather miniscule segment of the world’s population who can say they’ve done it.

TALENT, HARD WORK, PERSEVERANCE AND LUCK

To somehow find a way to progress through local recreation leagues, AAU squads, high school and college, remain healthy, get noticed by scouts and manage to earn a living playing basketball —  regardless of the league or location — automatically earns one a membership into a rather small fraternity. We’ll get to watch a handful of these young men celebrate with their families as their names are called during the NBA Draft, but we can also celebrate the rare athlete who can play hoops at the professional level, and some of the names we don’t hear called will have the opportunity to do exactly that.

 

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