So the National Basketball Association is really going to go through with this “bubble” thing. The NBA is going ahead with the continuation of its 2019-20 regular season inside a bubble in Orlando, Florida. Several players had already backed out before the training camps started, and others have since left the bubble for a variety of reasons. It’s probably not a reach to suggest that many more players are already eager to leave. With 22 of the 30 NBA teams participating, including several with their top players not involved, the NBA bubble is being stretched to its limits, and we’re just getting started.
TOO MANY TEAMS, TOO MANY GAMES, NOT ENOUGH THAT MATTER
There are 22 teams in Orlando, each will play eight regular-season games. This will be followed by a play-in tournament in mid-August, then four rounds of playoffs. This takes the season into the second week of October, meaning finals participants will be inside this bubble for over three months. Back when the NBA season was halted in March, most of the 16 playoff qualifiers had already been determined. There were very few regular-season games of importance remaining on the schedule. Basketball fans were getting themselves and their brackets geared up for college basketball tournaments. The networks that cover the NBA were about to send some of its most recognizable talent to an NCAA Tournament studio for pre-game and post-game analyses.
WHAT EXACTLY ARE SEEDING GAMES?
Not only did the league determine that each team in Orlando would play eight games, they decided to label them as “seeding games.” It’s up to the individual to determine if they should be insulted by this label, but what exactly is the point of having games for seeding when there’s no postseason homecourt advantage to be had? A quick glance at the conference standings at the time of the March play stoppage reveals that there will be little movement of consequence in eight games. The Bucks have a 6.5 game lead in the Eastern Conference the Lakers have a 5.5 game lead in the Western Conference.
The Wizards are 5.5 games behind 8th place Orlando for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, and Bradley Beal isn’t in Orlando. There are 3.0 games separating the second and third-place teams: Toronto and Boston. Even if they swap positions, they will likely end up playing each other in the second round with all games on a neutral court, anyway. There are two games separating the fourth through sixth seeds in the Eastern Conference: Miami, Indiana and Philadelphia. Brooklyn, even with most of its team missing, is locked into the seventh or eight seed. Orlando, who will finish seventh or eighth, will not have homecourt advantage in any scenario despite playing in their home city.
In the Western Conference, teams two through seven are separated by 5.5 games but, again, they’re playing eight games. There could be some seeding changes involving teams like the Los Angeles Clippers, Denver, Utah, Oklahoma City, Houston, and Dallas, but each of those teams has a playoff berth locked up. The Memphis Grizzlies have a 3.5 game lead over Portland, New Orleans and Sacramento, with San Antonio and Phoenix close behind. Six teams fighting for two spots and a newly established play-in game for the right to lose to the Lakers in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. What’s that play-in game about?
IT’S ABOUT ZION WILLIAMSON
The NBA had an early season national television schedule that heavily featured games involving the New Orleans Pelicans with the hopes of featuring Zion Williamson. Those plans were dashed when Williamson suffered a knee injury which sidelined him for his team’s first 44 games of the season. The season was interrupted just as Zion was beginning to hit his stride. With the Pelicans sitting 3.5 games behind Memphis for the eighth and (usually) final playoff spot in the Western Conference, a potential play-in game per bubble rules increaes their chances at landing the final playoff spot.
And it’s not presumptuous to assume that the league executives are salivating over a potential first-round pairing featuring Lebron James and the Los Angeles Lakers against Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans.
LET’S HOPE THERE ISN’T ANOTHER STOPPAGE
Since the NBA had decided to go ahead with this three-month thing, let’s hope there are no more stoppages. This Covid-19 is still causing distress for individuals, families, and businesses globally, and with this basketball event taking place in central Florida, its participants are right in the thick of it.
We recently saw The Basketball Tournament play to completion in Columbus, Ohio, but that was a single-elimination tournament played over a couple of weeks. Even that tournament had a couple of teams drop out because of positive test results. Other sports are coming back, but none are guaranteed to finish despite playing reduced schedules. These are the uncertainties every industry is facing, especially with another seasonal change upcoming.
It will also be interesting to see how many more players leave the bubble in the coming weeks, especially as it becomes clearer that they’re participating in what are little more than exhibition games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see more players decide it’s simply not worth the risk of infection or injury to participate in games of little importance, or others deciding the bubble regimen is simply not for them.
As a fan, I will watch the games while hoping this already stretched bubble doesn’t pop.
Photo by Анастасия Самохина on Unsplash
