Random Thoughts On 2019 NBA Free Agency

As a fan of professional basketball, I’m as eager for the NBA’s July 1st free agency period to get underway as anyone. Although I don’t pay much attention to them, I understand the plethora of rumors and predictions about where the top free agents might be headed.There are very few NBA games in June, the draft is over and there isn’t much news happening—though to be fair, the rumors were flying throughout the season. Folks who report these things for a living want to get ahead of the story and share information based on what they consider reliable sources. But taken collectively the speculation is, quite frankly, all over the place. Over the years, many of us have learned not to put much stock in the stories that come out daily, and will just wait it out until the signings actually take place. Even with that, here are some random thoughts on 2019 NBA Free Agency, which is now just a week away but—given the strong group of eligible players—has been discussed heavily since the 2017-18 season, and Lebron James isn’t even part of the class.

SOME $200 MILLION DEALS ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS

The combination of having several top players up for July 1 free agency AND the number of teams with available salary cap space located in larger markets make the 2019 free agency period even more intriguing than usual. Teams like the New York Knicks, the Los Angeles Lakers, The Los Angeles Clippers, the Dallas Mavericks and the Brooklyn Nets all have cap space to sign top a top free agent. Some have room for two max contracts or are attempting to get there.

There are teams from smaller markets in good shape cap-wise as well, like the Atlanta Hawks, the Sacramento Kings, the Utah Jazz and the Indiana Pacers. Unfortunately, if those four teams were the only ones with cap space to sign the highest-rated free agents, there wouldn’t be nearly the circus-like speculation regarding potential player movement. That doesn’t seem fair, yet it serves as another reminder that—like college basketball— regardless of the number of teams in the league, only a handful really matter to the masses. But in a huge statement for the little guy, the Toronto Raptors just showed us there’s more than one way to build a championship roster. And even some of the large-market teams will have to figure that out as well, for despite the fact that every top free agent has been linked to every big-market squad for the 2019-20 season and beyond, there just aren’t enough franchise-changing players to go around.

LOTS OF REACHING GOING ON

From stories originating from professional journalists with credible sources to those coming from the imaginations of kitchen table bloggers (ahem), there have been varying levels of crazy regarding the teams regarded as front-runners to sign players like Kevin Durant (despite the injury) Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, and others to max contracts. One could imagine these players—often the source of rumors themselves—wondering where these stories are coming from.

Meanwhile, fan bases from coast-to-coast are getting their hopes up—to the point of drawing up starting lineups for their favorite team which include the player who isn’t even free yet—of signing at least one of the top free agents and possibly two, as package deals figure prominently in the decision-making process. It’s too bad, because most will come away disappointed as players opt to stay with their current team where they can make the most money and a longer deal, or they’ll go elsewhere.

But right now it’s likely even the players themselves haven’t decided yet, and we have reporters—real and imagined—applying percentages to the chances of a team signing a player one week, only to change the odds and the team days later.

And Kevin Durant is one of only a couple of players on the planet who could suffer such a severe injury, and still have fans clamoring for their team to sign him to a super max deal, anyway. In some locales, it’s still “Durant or Bust.”

SO MANY REASONS, NONE OF THEM TRUE

So why is it a sure thing that this coveted player is definitely coming here (or going there)?

“Because he’s from here.”

“Because his best friend is already on the roster and they have the same agent.’

“Because this is New York!”

“Because his high school assistant coach is on the staff.”

“He bought a house here.”

“Because when he came here in January he told a reporter he loves playing here.”

“He’s reportedly unhappy with his current team.”

“He was recently seen with (enter name of player on a big-market roster with cap space).”

And so on…

DON’T GET YOUR HOPES UP ON FREE AGENCY ALONE

Yeah, I suppose it’s fun to speculate how these players would fit into the roster of the few teams in desired locations who can afford them, but the reality is that in the wake of the many thousands of rumors and reports, the anxious fan will likely be disappointed on several fronts:

1. The most anticipated moves, if any, are unlikely to happen on July 1st. It could happen days or weeks afterwards as everyone will wait to see what the alphas do.
2. Be prepared to see several of the top free agents stay right where they are, if where they can get the most money and years is the priority.
3. Many top free agents aren’t really considered top free agents by fans of teams desperate to sign top free agents. On the radio and on the street, I’ve heard Knicks’ fans warn, “If they come away with just Tobias Harris and Kemba Walker, that doesn’t work for me.” Well, Harris and Walker aren’t exactly chopped liver, but this summer, it’s all about Kevin Durant around these parts.
4. Developing teams like the Brooklyn Nets, on the other hand, have also made several roster moves to clear cap space, but I’m not convinced they’ll exclusively target the guys seeking max deals in spite of many reports to the contrary. At their stage of development, they’re just as likely to pursue several less expensive players to fill holes. So keep an eye on the so-called “under the radar” signings as well.
5. For the smaller markets with cap space, wise spending, and the shrewd drafting, trading and development of players is crucial. We’ve not seen or heard any reports of Utah or Sacramento as front-runners or “95% certainties” to sign Kevin Durant, so teams in these markets have to draft, nurture and then try to retain their own star players, especially when the big boys come knocking.

ONLY ONE WINNER WILL BE ANNOUNCED

At least in the short-term, Kevin Durant’s injury changes everything. There are other good players testing the free-agent market, but the uncertainty regarding KD’s return significantly alters the 2019 NBA Free Agent class, even as some fans remain undaunted and are screaming for their team to sign him, anyway.

Even with the summer leagues about to give the youngsters a chance to put their talents on display and give fans something to get excited about, the team with the biggest free agent signings will be declared the winner of the summer. But just like those draft report cards that come out the very next day—yeah, I read them—it will take awhile before we know who the real winners are.

Photo by Matt Hearne on Unsplash