Madison Square Garden, where the New York Knicks are hoping to NOT host a 2021 NBA play-in tournament game.
For its 2020-2021 campaign, the ever-evolving National Basketball Association has decided to revamp its postseason format to include more teams. As a result, they’ve added some hurdles to playoff participation for some and offered playoff possibilities for others where they didn’t exist before without changing the number of playoff qualifiers, currently at 16 teams. It remains to be seen if this latest change, a play-in tournament before the start of the playoffs, will be permanent, but something needed to be done to make the latter portions of the NBA regular season more relevant. The pros and cons of the NBA play-in tournament will become clearer with time, and the results will determine how it will be assessed by owners, players, and fans.
Since 1984, the NBA has allowed 16 teams (eight each in the Eastern and Western Conferences) to qualify for the postseason tournament to determine the league champion. The latest tweak does not change the number of teams but will allow more teams to become one of the 16 qualifiers.
Whereas teams one through eight in each conference would normally qualify automatically, the change means potential peril for teams 7 and 8. Now teams 9 and 10 enter the bidding, as those two teams will now face off in a single-elimination format. The winner continues, the loser goes fishing. Meanwhile, 7 plays 8, and the winner is officially the 7th playoff seed in the conference, even if it’s the team that finished 8th during the season. The loser plays against the winner of 9 versus 10 in another single-game elimination contest.
In other words, the 9th and 10th place teams have to win 2 consecutive play-in tournament games to jump into the playoffs; the 7th and 8th place teams have to win one game to qualify.
Confused yet?
To summarize, the play-in tournament consists of three games in each conference:
For anyone who hasn’t been following and suddenly discovers their team’s urgency to finish in 6th place or higher, this is the reason why. The 9th or 10th place regular season finisher can salvage its entire season by winning two play-in games. The loser of the 7th place versus 8th place game can have its entire season destroyed by losing one game against a team that finished below them in the standings.
Here are some pros and cons regarding the NBA play-in tournament:
Understandably, the NBA would try to add more juice to its regular-season games, particularly after the All-Star break, because many of the likely playoff participants have already been identified by then, and most of the games have a pre-season feel to them. In this latest format, any team that really wants to qualify (we’re not going to act like everyone wants to get in) for the playoffs has a chance, however slight.
The facts are ugly. The principles involved in the play-in tournament will be vying for the 7th and 8th seeds in their respective conferences, and the holders of those spots have historically had a short playoff run. There is enough evidence to conclude that the first-round series featuring the 1st seed versus the 8th seed, and the 2nd seed versus the 7th seed, are largely tune-up series for the higher-seeded team. Since the best-of-seven format began in 2003, the top two seeds have won 68 of the 72 first-round series against seeds 7 and 8. And in many cases, the rounds have has not been competitive, ending in five games or less. The elimination game in those series resembles a late regular-season contest between two teams with nothing to play for.
Single-elimination games are popular. One need look no further than the popularity of March Madness and NBA Game Sevens or the packed high-school gymnasiums during state tournaments. In this format, the NBA has added two: the 9 versus 10 game and the winner of 9-10 versus the loser of 7-8. Even if the teams involved don’t spark national interest and have little chance to upset a heavily-favored team in a seven-game series, the league hopes the additional elimination games will bring some viewers.
With an eye on the way things used to be, the players and fans of a team that finishes with the 7th-best record in its conference will despise the format if eliminated by a team with the 9th or 10th-best record in a single-elimination game. And, as it stands now, teams hovering around 10 games under .500 still have a chance to qualify for the play-in tournament with ten games left in the regular season.
So, for example, how would you like to be the team that has done the regular-season work to finish 7th in the Eastern Conference and somehow end up having to win a single-game elimination contest against the 10th seed for a playoff spot? That 10th seed could be a team like the suddenly-hot Washington Wizards, with their star players Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal walking on the court grinning like Cheshire cats, secure in the knowledge that they’re playing with house money after struggling for much of the regular season.
Likewise, the 7th place finisher knows at best it can hold onto its current position, while the other three participants can improve theirs. If the 7th place team does not win the first game, they’ll drop to the 8th seed if they win the next game or miss the playoffs completely if they lose that game.
In last season’s Orlando bubble, a less perilous version of a play-in tournament involving the 8th and 9th place teams in each conference was instituted, and certain conditions had to be met (9th place team had to finish within four games of 8th place in the standings) for that game to even take place.
With the understanding that the league’s worst teams end up with the best players coming out of college, the setup created an opportunity for exposure for the top young NBA talent to be put on display in a playoff setting. In 2020, the Memphis Grizzlies managed to hold onto the 9th spot in the Western Conference and earned a play-in matchup against the 8th place Portland Trailblazers. This gave a rising star like rookie Ja Morant an opportunity to do his thing in a nationally-televised game of importance.
In the 2020 format, the 9th place finisher had to win two neutral site games against the 8th place finisher to clinch a playoff spot, while the 8th place team only needed one win, so there was the potential for two games. Portland won the first game, ending the Grizzlies’ season, but Morant shined on that day, finishing with 35 points and nearly guiding his team to a win
The New Orleans Pelicans were also invited to the Orlando bubble, and there was hope that they’d at least qualify for the play-in game with their star rookie Zion Williamson, but they struggled to a 13th place finish.
Despite the recent breakthroughs, the Covid-19 virus is still a thing, and its effect on the 2020-21 NBA season continues to be profound. Players and coaches have been unexpectedly forced to miss games without contracting the virus. Toss in the usual spate of player injuries and a very compressed schedule of games, particularly after the All-Star break, and you have rosters stretched to the limit. Now add in the clear need to finish sixth or higher in the conference standings plus the opportunity for a play-in spot as the 10th-place finisher, and now the opportunities for resting players is reduced for most teams.
Teams in the upper portions of their conference standings trying to avoid falling below sixth place AND teams in the lower portion of their conference standings trying to reach 10th place for a play-in spot are no longer in a position to rest players despite the crowded schedule. Teams cannot “load manage” their way to a desired spot in the standings under this format, and the importance of the games will find some approaching playoff intensity. Some teams will experience this for weeks BEFORE the playoffs actually start.
This is what Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban was lamenting, and he has a point.
As a basketball fan who thinks the NBA already has too many teams qualifying for the postseason, I’m still willing to give the play-in tournament a chance. It will be similar to watching a college basketball conference tournament finale in one of the smaller, one-bid conferences. Of course, you know the winner of the larger tournament is not coming out of that game, and the winner’s time in the larger tournament will be short, but it’s still a game of importance. And the players always believe they have a chance.
Due to all the factors involved, it might be next year (if there’s a return to a normal schedule load) before determining if the play-in format is beneficial. But as of the games played through April 30, 2021, only two games separate the 4th place New York Knicks (homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs) and 7th place Miami Heat (play-in duties) in the Eastern Conference standings with ten regular-season games remaining. The 10th place Wizards are three games ahead of the Toronto Raptors and the Chicago Bulls for the final play-in spot.
In the Western Conference, the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers are only one game clear of the 7th spot and a potential play-in game. At the same time, the 10th place Golden State Warriors are only three games ahead of the 11th place New Orleans Pelicans.
None of these scenarios would have mattered before the 2020-21 season. And with so many teams playing at less than full strength for much of the season for various reasons, real danger lurks in having to face a suddenly revitalized squad in a play-in setting.
The NBA will still have to figure out other ways to make its marathon of a regular-season more relevant and reward winning instead of losing, but this is a start.
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