Just a few weeks into the 2017-18 NBA season, we’re already hearing talk regarding potential league Most Valuable Player candidates and hearing the “MVP” chants at arenas throughout the league. It’s a bit early for that, but recent trends suggest that the eventual winner will NOT be a traditional low-post center.
“Nice Drop Step, But it’s Only TWO Points.”
This trend is consistent with the way the game has evolved in recent years as the game action continues to move farther away from the basket, and with greater speed. Russell Westbrook led an impressive group of perimeter players – including James Harden, Lebron James and Kawhi Leonard – as the leading vote-getters for the 2017 MVP award. You’d have to go back to the Year 2000 to find the last time a true center won NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award, when Shaquille O’Neal took honors as a member of the champion Los Angeles Lakers.
Traditional NBA Centers Are A Vanishing Breed
In the last 35 years, only four centers: Moses Malone (1982 and 1983), Hakeem Olajuwon (1994), David Robinson (1995), and Shaquille O’Neal (2000) have won the NBA’s MVP Award. The last center to even crack the top five in MVP voting was Joakim Noah, who placed 4th in 2014, and prior to that, Dwight Howard finished as the runner-up to Derrick Rose in 2011. Even Memphis Grizzlies’ center Marc Gasol had the audacity to finish 8th in voting in 2014. On the bright side, with an ability to score from the perimeter being just one of his many skills, a center like Minnesota’s Karl Anthony Towns will likely earn serious consideration for the award in the coming years.
Stretch Fours, Unicorns and Freaks
Even power forwards are becoming more difficult to find in the final voting tallies. Looking ahead, non-traditional bigs who can score, handle and pass like a guard and/or score from long-range like Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo (aka “The Greek Freak”) and Kristaps Porzingis (once called a ‘unicorn’ by Kevin Durant) will challenge the smaller guys for consideration once they’re in winning situations. But Dirk Nowitzki was the last player at this position to win the award back in 2007.
Centers’ Early Dominance
After forward Bob Petit and point guard Bob Cousy won the initial two MVP awards back in 1956 and 1957, respectively, the league’s centers went on a run – dominated by Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – winning 23 of the next 26 awards between 1958 and 1983 before the Larry Bird/Magic Johnson/Michael Jordan era took over. Only wins by Petit in 1959 (with Bill Russell the runner-up), Oscar Robertson in 1964(with Wilt Chamberlain the runner-up) and Julius Erving in 1981 (with Larry Bird the runner-up, followed by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) prevented the league’s centers from winning the award for 26 consecutive years.
A Different Kind Of Center
Even within that stretch, there were a couple of winners who foretold a changing style of play among centers. The 1975 winner, Buffalo Braves’ center Bob McAdoo, was not a traditional low-post center by any means, doing a lot of his damage as a high-percentage jump-shooter with range, though he only nailed three 3-point field goals for his entire career. The Celtics’ Dave Cowens – the 1973 MVP – was smallish for a center at about 6’9″, but he was also dangerous from mid-range and a rebounding machine, pulling down 16 per game that season.
From Wilt To Willis and Wes
Baltimore Bullets’ center Wes Unseld won the MVP award in 1969 as a rookie (only he and Wilt Chamberlain have accomplished that feat) while averaging only 13 points per game, using his broad shoulders (spanning the painted area, perhaps?) and strong base to become one of the league’s all-time best positional rebounders at only 6’7″. New York Knicks’ center Willis Reed, who won the award in 1970, looked almost tiny – at 6’9″ or 6’10” – next to guys like Wilt and Kareem, but he was one of the league’s strongest players and could score inside as well as strike from mid-range with a smooth lefty jumper, and would even hit the occasional sweeping hook shot.
Centers Changing With The Times
After being largely pushed aside in the MVP voting by centers and forwards for the first several decades of the award’s existence, there appears to be the beginnings of a revolution from NBA guards, having won the last three awards (Stephen Curry twice, then Russell Westbrook), placing 1-2 in the 2017 race and Lebron James with his guard-like skills winning the award four times in five years (and another guard, Derrick Rose. winning the other one). Perimeter players now have the advantage with the faster, more wide open game neutralizing the size disadvantage to the point where many centers now feel compelled to add long-distance shooting to their offensive repertoires just to stay relevant. Likewise, the seven-footer must now also defend the 3-point line, and some find themselves watching from the sidelines during crucial moments of a game if matchups aren’t favorable.
And longer shots result in longer rebounds. Now go chase ’em.
An Early Look Ahead
As for potential winners for 2018, last year’s winner, Russell Westbrook will have a more difficult time repeating while having to share point production with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, and when Chris Paul returns from injury, James Harden’s numbers will take a slight dip, but if regular-season team performance plays into the voters’ decision, he’ll be one of the favorites although guys like Lebron James and Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (who finished 7th in last year’s voting) will still merit consideration if they start winning consistently.
Nonetheless, it’s pretty clear the sport is trending smaller.
Moral of the story: if you’re an NBA center with no history of starting, playing a full season or averaging 30-plus minutes a game, you’re a restricted free agent, and your team offers you a $75 million deal, take it and run like Usain Bolt.
