There’s a basketball cliche that states “a playoff series doesn’t start until the home team loses a game.” While I’m not down with that one, it’s become clear that “the NBA Playoffs don’t start until the first round ends.” After a mostly lackluster first round of action where only the just-completed Denver-San Antonio series provided any real drama, we’re down to the final eight teams–the Conference Semifinals–and it’s time to get serious. The first round had two sweeps and three five-game series out of the eight pairings and, surprisingly, none of the shorter series involved the Golden State Warriors. And the top four seeds in each conference won their series. So after correctly predicting seven of the eight first-round winners–which is nothing to brag about–the midrangehoops.com 2019 NBA Playoffs Second Round Predictions are here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (4) Boston Celtics
It i’s understood that Golden State and Houston will square off in the Western Conference semis, and too early in the minds of many. But I believe this to be the most compelling series of the entire second round. Milwaukee had the best regular-season record in the league and, at worst, one of the top three players in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo. They were also barely challenged in the first round against Detroit.
Boston will likely aim to shut down the Bucks’ complimentary players by staying at home on those three-point shooters spreading the floor while The Freak dominates the painted area. The Celtics have several young players who were significant contributors during last season’s run to Game Seven of the Eastern Conference semifinals, and there’s no Lebron James to contend with. The Bucks have a distinct size advantage over Boston, but Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and the Celtics defense will be the difference in this series.
PREDICTION: BOSTON IN SIX.
(2) Toronto Raptors vs. (4) Philadelphia 76ers
Lots of star power on both sides in this series. The Sixers were able to physically overcome the young, skinny Brooklyn Nets, but will have a more difficult time bullying the experienced Raptors. If Joel Embiid can work with his creaky knee, he’ll be the difference in the series. Toronto’s Pascal Siakam is playing out of his mind lately and gives the Raptors another two-way player in addition to Kawhi Leonard, Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry.
Despite their talented starting five, Philly had trouble scoring at times against a scrappy Brooklyn squad, and got booed off their home court after Game One. But they were able to establish control when they had to and won Game Three on the road without Embiid as Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons took over. And we haven’t mentioned Jimmy Butler yet. This should be a long series, but Philly has too many weapons.
PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA IN SEVEN.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (4) Houston Rockets
The three-point shooting Houston Rockets staggered to a 4th-place finish in the Western Conference after some questionable off-season moves and a slow start, but they are still dangerous. 2018 might have seen the Rockets’ best chance to unseat the Warriors as they had Game Seven on their home court. They just couldn’t sink a three-point shot and had nowhere else to turn. It just doesn’t seem right to have this matchup so early in the playoffs, but here we are.
Golden State comes into this series with several key players banged-up, but they still have Kevin Durant. We can only hope that Houston’s Chris Paul can stay healthy for the entire series this time. Golden State got outworked by the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round and got away with it, but that won’t fly against Houston. Forget about Lebron James, many of the Warriors’ top players have been playing nine-month seasons for the past four years. Might be some wear-and-tear going on, but it’s still difficult to pick against them.
PREDICTION: GOLDEN STATE IN SEVEN.
(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (3) Portland Trailblazers
I am totally confounded by this Portland team. Last year I picked them to win their first-round series against New Orleans. They got swept. This year, I picked them to finish out of the playoff running in the Western Conference. They finished as the third seed for the second straight year. And this year, I picked them to lose their first-round series to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and they won in five games on a remarkable performance and game/series-winning shot by Damien Lillard.
With Blazers’ backup center Enes Kanter diagnosed with a shoulder separation, I’ll be picking against them again. Already down a center, the Blazers found Kanter to be the perfect inside compliment for their perimeter backcourt combo. It will be tough for Lillard to match his performance against OKC; even tougher for the Blazers to deal with All-Star center Nikola Jokic without their top two centers. Expect Kanter to try to play, but he’ll be limited. That’s too bad, because the Blazers are playing confidently and could pull this off at full strength. Denver’s youngsters, including 21-year-old Jamal Murray, are blossoming and the Nuggets are a little better defensively than Portland. That’ll be he difference in another long semifinal series.
PREDICTION: DENVER IN SIX.
Photo by Marvin Ronsdorf on Unsplash
