The second round of the 2019 NBA Playoffs was every bit as good as the first round was bad, with two stirring Game Sevens and two other series many thought would go seven. I have to admit to being very surprised at three of the four surviving teams, as evidenced by the 25 percent success rate in predicting the Round Two series. Even with market size not the factor it was 20 years ago, the league may not be thrilled that the cities of Milwaukee, Toronto and Portland comprise 75 percent of the final four teams, but the basketball junkie doesn’t care about that. We just want to see good, competitive basketball, and we’ll get that. So after that horrendous second-round performance, midrangehoops.com staggers back with its 2019 NBA Conference Finals Predictions.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs. (2) TORONTO RAPTORS
The Milwaukee Bucks owned the best record in the NBA for the 2018-19 season, and their strong play has continued in the postseason, winning eight of their first nine games. They’ve proven to be difficult to contend with on the offensive end, scoring over 120 points in three of the four games against Detroit in a four-game sweep, and shrugging off a 90-point performance in a Game 1 conference semifinal loss to the Boston Celtics to average 119 points in the next four games, all victories.
The Bucks have demonstrated that they can go 10-deep, especially with Malcolm Brogdon back. We all know what Giannis can do, but when secondary scorers like Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe are on their games, the Bucks are tough to beat. Contributions from veterans like George Hill and Nikola Mirotic, make the Bucks even tougher. When guys like Pat Connaughton and Irsan Ilyasova chip in like they did against the Celtics, then it’s not even fair. And we haven’t even mentioned Brook Lopez, who shot horribly in the first two rounds but can still get hot from deep.
This is what the Toronto Raptors will have to deal with over the next two weeks. The Raptors pride themselves on being a strong defensive unit but so did the dismantled Boston Celtics, though the Raptors appear to trust each other more on that end of the court. Philly’s Joel Embiid pushed the skinny Brooklyn Nets around in the first round, but didn’t have a weight advantage over the rock-steady Marc Gasol, couldn’t get to his favorite spots and certainly couldn’t dominate the paint. Gasol’s defense against Embiid was every bit as important in the Raptors series win against the 76ers as Kawhi Leonard’s buzzer-beater.
If the Toronto Raptors are going to earn the franchise’s first-ever trip to the NBA Finals, it’ll happen on the defensive end. They’ll also need Kyle Lowry, to find his shooting stroke, especially from deep. In addition to outscoring everyone, the long-limbed Milwaukee Bucks aren’t allowing too much action near the basket these days, either. Overall, Kawhi Leonard will need more help from his teammates on the offensive end than he received against Philadelphia.
This series features two of the NBA’s top players in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard, and some fresh faces headed for the NBA Finals without the threat of being impeded by Lebron James. The Bucks appear to have the deeper squad, and been more dominant during the postseason. But Kawhi Leonard has been through these wars, and is reluctant to let his team lose. If the Raptors’ coaching staff is trying to decide how to defend Giannis, they’d do well to memorize the film from Game 1 of the Bucks-Celtics series and hope the Bucks’ complimentary players cool off. This is a matchup of the two teams with the best regular-season records in the NBA, and we’re looking at another long series.
PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE IN SIX.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS vs. (3) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
The Golden State Warriors are still around. As the Houston Rockets found out, it’s difficult to unseat the defending champion, let alone a three-time winner in the last four years. No one knows how long Kevin Durant will be sidelined, but as in the Houston series, the Warriors have enough quality players familiar with playoff-level intensity to be considered strong favorites to win the Western Conference title for the fifth consecutive year.
Their Western Conference Final opponent, the Portland Trailblazers, made several shrewd personnel moves to shore up their bench (Seth Curry, Rodney Hood, Enes Kanter) while adding some much-needed frontcourt scoring to the backcourt duo of Damien Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Then Damien Lillard went off against Oklahoma City and C.J. McCollum did likewise against Denver, including a memorable all-around performance in Game Seven on the road.
This was an unlikely pairing at the beginning of the season, but Portland has bounced back nicely from last season’s first round disappointment against New Orleans. They have a puncher’s chance in this series due to the inside play of Enes Kanter, who must be pinching himself after going from afterthought with the 17-win New York Knicks to a focal point in the Western Conference Finals in the same season, and knocking off his former team (OKC) on the way.
Even without Durant, many are predicting a quick series win for Golden State, but I’m not so sure. I can see Portland winning an early game at Golden State, and Golden State taking home-court advantage back with a road win. Can’t see Portland winning twice in Oakland, however. The two backcourt tandems will cancel each other out; the key will be the influence of the Warriors’ perimeter defenders Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala, and the inside play of Enes Kanter. Portland has the deeper bench, but take the experience.
PREDICTION: GOLDEN STATE IN SIX.
Photo by Christian Mendoza on Unsplash
