For each of the National Basketball Association’s 30 teams, the one-third mark of the regular season comes with eight minutes left in the second quarter of the 27th game. With each NBA team either having reached that point or slated to this week for the 2019-20 season, now’s a good time review the early stages of yet another season that simultaneously passes too quickly and doesn’t move rapidly enough. As usual, when reflecting on the 2019-20 NBA at the one-third mark, the league’s critics who point to its predictability and those observers who see a league full of surprises both have evidence to support their arguments.
FEWER PEOPLE ARE WATCHING
Through the early portion of the 2019-20 NBA season, television ratings are down measurably. Approximately one-third of the NBA teams play their home games in front of sparse, listless audiences subjected to rapid exchanges of three-point field-goal attempts and kept awake only by loud music, kiss cams, dance-offs and flying t-shirts during timeouts and halftime.
The casual fan has abandoned the Golden State Warriors for the time being, as injuries and defections have dropped the team from the top to the very bottom of the league power rankings. The player who would be the updated league logo were it based on the current style of play, Stephen Curry, has missed most of the season.
The young man considered the NBA’s next big thing, Zion Williamson, hasn’t played a game yet. Unfortunately, the league scheduled several nationally-televised games in the early portion of the season looking to feature Zion and the New Orleans Pelicans who, without him, have one of the league’s worst win-loss records. Toss in some last-minute load management affecting star players in other nationally televised contests, and it’s clear the networks covering the league may want to devise a backup plan when scheduling these telecasts before the season starts.
WE ALREADY KNOW THE PLAYOFF TEAMS
With still several shopping days remaining before Christmas, the sixteen teams who will continue playing basketball past mid-April have mostly been decided. Some might argue we knew them before the season started. In the Eastern Conference, the top six teams (Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Miami, Boston, Toronto, and Indiana) are solid, with Brooklyn and Orlando just needing to stay healthy to nail down the final two spots. Detroit might make a bid and Charlotte is overachieving with unknown players. The remaining teams are either very young or just plain bad.
The Western Conference runs through Los Angeles as both league entries from that city appear to be on a collision course for a conference final series played entirely in one building. But that’s five months away, and teams like Houston, Denver and Utah are hanging onto slim hopes of crashing the LA party. As we’ve seen in recent years, there will be a fierce battle for the final Western Conference playoff spots involving a bunch of teams. Competition like that might keep the regular-season interesting after the February All-Star break.
The NBA is aware of its issues with maintaining fan interest through the entirety of the 82-game season and have toyed with the idea of a mid-season tournament to shift the emphasis for a brief time. Once this is thoroughly examined, the league will realize the tournament will be load-managed into oblivion and will move on to other suggestions.
Likewise, any thoughts of reducing the number of regular-season contests will never fly with NBA franchise owners.
THE MORE THINGS CHANGE…
Through the first 27.33 games of the season (or thereabouts), some unforeseen things have taken place. The defending champion Toronto Raptors have remained formidable even with the departure of NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, as former sidekicks like Pascal Siakam and Fred Van Vleet have effectively taken on larger roles.
Some may disagree, but teams like the Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat have performed beyond expectations to this point. And again, the fall of the Golden State Warriors has been stunning, but is only temporary. I thought the Atlanta Hawks would be better, and even without Zion Williamson, ditto the New Orleans Pelicans, though neither is quite ready for post-season contention.
And after a strong start, the San Antonio Spurs look vulnerable, enough so that a playoff spot is not guaranteed. They fell in and out of contention last season before qualifying, as usual, and giving the second-seeded Denver Nuggets a difficult time. That said, I’ll believe the Spurs will miss the playoffs when the 2019-20 regular season is over and they’re not one of the top eight seeds in the Western Conference.
Individually, I had no idea Luca Doncic would make this big a jump so soon. Right now the Mavericks are in third place in the Western Conference as a result and Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t gotten rolling yet. The Phoenix Suns started off quickly before tailing off some, but the Monte Williams hire was a strong move.
And the league has once again benefited from a nice influx of rookie talent, as several first AND second-round selections are making contributions. Zion Williamson was killing it in preseason play before the surgery, and Memphis Grizzlies rookie Ja Morant continues to write a great story about a lightly-recruited youngster achieving NBA stardom.
…THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME
The Houston Rockets are still spreading the floor and playing for three-pointers like we’ve never seen, with two guys in opposite corners, one guy in the backcourt and another on the baseline in Row 10 while James Harden handles the ball at the top of the circle. I’m exaggerating, of course, but he’s being guarded by a guy who, by rule, is not allowed to hand check or make any physical contact, especially during the shooting motion, and with all that empty floor space between him and the basket.
Who wins?
Meanwhile, the New York Knicks have fired yet another coach, even though most nights they start three power forwards, a rookie SG who plays like one, and a PG who can’t score, then wonder why opponents rain three-pointers on them most nights. On the assumption that the interim coach is exactly that, the aforementioned rookie and lottery pick, RJ Barrett, is looking at working under three different coaches in less than a year. Sound familiar?
(see Porzingis, Kristaps)
LOOKING AHEAD
Fortunately, this June’s NBA Draft class, though not lacking in talent, lacks the generational player that would make teams race for the bottom. So in the coming months the league will look for any spark to generate interest before the March blackout caused by the NCAA Men’s Division 1 Basketball Tournament. The return of Zion Williamson will help, and the anticipated Lakers-Clippers playoff matchup should be compelling on several levels. The league will be elated to have Lebron James back in a deep playoff run.
Unfortunately, most of the drama is gone where determining postseason qualifiers is concerned, and the final entries in the Western Conference are looking at a short playoff experience in April 2020 anyway. But the league is also looking at the possibility of renewal of some old classic league finals pairings featuring the Lakers and Celtics or Sixers, though it remains to be seen if the target audience—the younger set—cares about such things.
And between now and February, there’s always the possibility of roster movement as playoff contenders needing reinforcements look to raid the rosters of weaker teams to fill holes, and other teams look to shed bad contracts or stockpile draft picks.
There’s always something to look forward to with the NBA if we’re willing to wait.
We’ll check back at the two-thirds mark of the regular season, or with four minutes remaining in the third quarter of Game 54.
Photo by Paul Deetman from Pexels
