2018 NBA Finals Prediction

For the fourth consecutive year, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors will represent their conferences in the NBA Finals. It’s a safe bet that the two combatants are every bit as weary of playing against each other on this stage as many fans are of the matchup, but the Warriors are at least the best team in their conference, and Lebron James is the best player on the planet, so here we are. Barring injuries, this one appears to be a mismatch, but it wouldn’t make sense to serve up forecasts for every playoff round except the finals, so here is the midrangehoops.com 2018 NBA Finals Prediction:

WHY THE WARRIORS WILL WIN

The Golden State Warriors are locks to win their third NBA title in four years for two very simple reasons: 1) they are the better offensive team and 2) they are the better defensive team. They also have an edge with the clipboard in addition to having homecourt advantage. Two of their top scorers can have off-nights shooting, and there’s still enough firepower to overcome it. The Warriors pass the ball better and their core players have been together longer for better chemistry. They have several players who are effective guarding multiple positions on the perimeter, while the Cavaliers struggle on that end of the floor, both inside and out.

WHY THE CAVS WILL LOSE

The Cavs won the second of the three previous final round meetings against the Warriors with Kyrie Irving on their roster, and he’s no longer with the team. The Warriors have at least three guys who would be the best player on most teams in the NBA; The Cavs have one, and with Kevin Love out it’s tough to identify their second-best player. The Cavs have a bunch of players who either came to the team in mid-season and are playoff battle-tested (George Hill and Rodney Hood), or came to the team in mid-season and have no previous playoff experience (Larry Nance and Jordan Clarkson) at all. Lebron James has already proven  repeatedly that he can carry teams deep into the playoffs, but he played all 48 minutes of Game Seven against Boston because he had to, even though the Celtics couldn’t hit a shot all night. The man is tired, and one day we might actually see evidence of that.

THE BEST WAY FOR THE CAVS TO MAKE ‘EM SWEAT

However, the Cavaliers can at least make things interesting, but only if these two things happen in combination:  Lebron James plays AND Andre Iguodala doesn’t.

With Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green around, it’s difficult to justify calling Andre Iguodala the most important player on the Warriors’ roster, but in this series he might be exactly that, whether he plays or not. In a league where guys go from averaging 22 shots per game to 20, then talk about having made the ultimate sacrifice by giving up two shots, the unselfish Iguodala is one of the top reasons for the Warriors recent dominance.

GIVE ME FIVE LIKE THIS GUY AND I’LL BEAT YOU MOST NIGHTS

Though not the greatest shooter, Iguodala is good enough to start for each of the 30 NBA teams because he does everything else well and is a lockdown defender, yet accepts his role as a non-starter. He’d impact this series because he’s the Warrior who makes Lebron work the hardest for his points and that includes Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. As good as the Warriors are defensively without Iguodala, they’re measurably better with him. And with the Cavs second and third options coming in the form of veteran journeyman, each will have to play over their heads just to make this a series.

GOOD ENOUGH TO SLEEPWALK TO THE FINALS

The Warriors weren’t at the top of their game in the regular season — certainly not to the level of last season — or the Houston series, but the Rockets had something to do with the latter, at least until they couldn’t find the range in Game Seven. Perhaps things have come too easily for  Golden State and they’ll look across the floor for the next couple of weeks and not see enough of a challenge outside of Lebron James to bring them out of their malaise. A Cleveland sneak attack in one of the first two games in Oakland — especially with Iggy already ruled out for Game One — ought to qualify as a wake-up call.

I’m not one to get involved in the Lebron versus Jordan argument that pops up every spring, but if Cleveland pulls this one off…

Naaaah.

PREDICTION: ANOTHER GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VICTORY PARADE ON SATURDAY, JUNE 16th AFTER WINNING THE SERIES IN SIX GAMES.