The NBA’s Western Conference is widely viewed as the league’s bully, and solidified its reputation by adding four former Eastern Conference All-Stars to its rosters during the summer of 2017. Despite the reputation, however, the West has only won half of the last six NBA championships (thanks largely to Lebron James).
So what does this mean? Not much, really. With Lebron still in the Eastern Conference, and the Golden State Warriors looking at another season of somewhere around 10 losses, it simply means the Western Conference has more teams with multiple All-Star players who will not win a title in 2018. It means nothing for the All-Star Game, either, since the geographical distinction has been removed when selecting teams going forward.
And like the Eastern Conference, the Western Conference also has its share of bad teams.
So with all that in mind – in predicted order of regular-season finish – here is the midrangehoops.com 2017-18 NBA Western Conference Preview:
PG Stephen Curry is the most deadly long-distance shooter in the NBA and a slick ballhandler. Not really a defender but he can get away with it on this roster. Shawn Livingston provides poise, defense and the occasional bucket off the bench, and he has the coveted wingspan to give opponents fits. SG Klay Thompson is only slightly less deadly as a shooter than Curry, and perhaps made the team’s biggest sacrifice in terms of of offensive involvement after Kevin Durant’s arrival. He will also lock you up on defense. Nick (Swaggy P) Young comes over from the Lakers, brings yet another spacer off the bench and is probably wondering why his new teammates are so serious. Patrick McCaw surprised many as a contributor last season after his selection in the second round of the 2017 NBA Draft.
SF Kevin Durant‘s controversial arrival only made the previously difficult-to-guard Warriors nearly impossible to guard. He was the difference in the 2017 NBA Finals, and the double-teaming option is no longer viable. Andre Iguodala‘s return is significant. A starter on any other NBA team, Iguodala is one of the league’s best at slowing down the opposition’s top perimeter scorer and has become a clutch shooter as well. Omri Casspi appears to be a good fit here as well but minutes will be scarce. PF Draymond Green is the type of player every team needs but few have: an emotional leader, defensive workhorse, ball mover, scorer, and rebounder all rolled into one 6’7″ package. And to think he lasted until the second round in the 2012 NBA Draft as some scouts thought he didn’t have an NBA position. Rookie Jordan Bell, yet another second-rounder, will eventually provide muscle off the bench when veteran David West finally hangs up his sneakers. Kevon Looney is still waiting his turn.
You can’t have five guys on the court who need the ball, so C Zaza Pachulia is a perfect fit in the starting lineup. He’ll defend, rebound, snarl and score a few garbage points before giving way to the more athletic Javale McGee. McGee’s minutes will be cherished because Green can also fill in at center on occasion, but he’ll contribute with some old-school low-post stuff every now and then.
This team is stacked. They will pace, pass, screen and splash opponents into oblivion, then (the part that many teams who attempt to emulate the Warriors leave out) they’ll defend at the other end. The Durant adjustment period culminated in a championship and despite the possibility of strong challenges from teams like San Antonio or Houston, it appears only injuries and/or egomania can stop the Warriors from repeating.
It’s difficult to believe that PG Tony Parker is entering his 17th NBA season, all with the Spurs. He’ll miss the first few weeks of the season and, at age 35, he’ll miss multiple games throughout the season. He’s still quick and can get into the paint for high percentage shots. Patty Mills is more dead-eye shooter than point guard, while Dejounte Murray looks be to another late-first round steal (like Parker) and just needs experience. SG Danny Green does most of his damage from long range, and has worked his way into being a bit of a steals guy. 40-year-old lefty Manu Ginobili can still do many things to help the Spurs win, but in fewer minutes. Still makes big shots and forces turnovers. Bryn Forbes is a long-distance threat looking for more minutes after earning a spot on the Spurs’ roster as an undrafted rookie in 2016-17.
MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard is one of the league’s best two-way players, whose offense has improved to where he’s a threat to score from anywhere. Averaged 25 ppg in 2016-17. Rudy Gay and his offensive-minded game is suited to the Spurs’ second unit. Kyle (Slo Mo) Anderson is versatile for a 6’9″ guy, but lacks athleticism. As expected, PF LaMarcus Aldridge hasn’t posted the same scoring numbers in his two years in San Antonio as he did in Portland, but his rebounding stats have fallen off a bit, too. Floor-spacer Davis Bertans may actually get an opportunity on the Spurs’ thin front line.
Pau Gasol, like Tony Parker, enters his 17th NBA season. At 37, he can no longer be expected to play a full season. The stats have declined in recent years, but he’s certain Hall of Famer who still has some game left. Joffrey Lauvergne is in a perfect spot for minutes if he takes advantage. Gasol will be rested and/or nicked-up more often, giving Lauvergne time to make a contribution. Good rebounder.
How many years has it been since we started to write off the Spurs as an aging team ready for a rebuild? This probably started during the 2011-12 season, or six seasons before Tim Duncan retired. Now in their second year of the post-Duncan era, the Spurs are still around. This is Kawhi Leonard’s team now, a couple of the elders are hanging in for support. and this franchise always unearths a guy or two to fit right in. As long as the current management team and Gregg Popovich are around, the Spurs are a threat. For now they remain the top candidate to meet the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, but the Warriors are on a different plane.
PG Chris Paul comes over from the Clippers to take on some of the ballhandling and scoring burden, and he’ll work hard at the defensive end. At 32, Paul still has some good years left, but is usually banged-up at certain points of a season. MVP runner-up James Harden played too many minutes last season and finally wilted during the playoffs. Veteran Eric Gordon can even run the offense if needed, but his game is beyond the 3-point arc, and he’s looking forward to his second consecutive healthy season.
SF Trevor Ariza continues his second stint with the Rockets as one of their most reliable veterans. Never a big scorer, Ariza will run the floor, defend, create turnovers, and get streaky-hot from the perimeter at times. P.J. Tucker is in town to be a physical nuisance on the defensive end. Troy Williams is an active body who just needs minutes. PF Ryan Anderson didn’t have his best year shooting in 2016-17 but remains one of the league’s premier “stretch 4’s.” Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute, like Tucker, was brought in for defensive resistance.
Clint Capela looks to continue his improving inside play in his fourth NBA season. His scoring average continues to improve though most of his points come off lobs and offensive caroms. He’s also a better-than-average rebounder and shot blocker. And he’s only 23. Nene Hilario is now 35 years old and plays an intelligent game. The Rockets will still need his leadership on the court for a few minutes per night if he can shake the injury bug. Tarik Black gets scrap minutes unless Nene sits out; Zhou Qi is a couple of years away.
The Rockets have figured out that playing defense is much easier when you have defensive-minded players. The acquisitions of Paul, Tucker and Mbah a Moute to go along with holdovers like Ariza, Gordon, etc. should result in improved defensive numbers, particularly in the postseason. On the court, Chris Paul will probably coach the defense. Obviously, scoring is not the issue with this bunch. Should the San Antonio Spurs finally begin to show some wear, expect the Rockets to be next in line to challenge the Warriors. Second round at worst, possibly the conference finals.
PG Jeff Teague replaces the popular Ricky Rubio and gives the Wolves a floor general who is also a threat to score. Quick veteran Aaron Brooks has bounced around but could help out here, as could the inexperienced Tyus Jones. All-Star SG Jimmy Butler brings his two-way game from Chicago and is expected to provide leadership as well. 37-year-old Jamal Crawford brings his dance moves to the Wolves bench for scoring punch and can even run the show in a pinch. Marcus Georges-Hunt is looking to stick around after signing a late-summer deal.
SF Andrew Wiggins finally landed among the top scorers in the NBA, but looks to expand his overall game. Shabazz Muhammad will battle for minutes and for shots with Crawford on the second unit. Hard hat-wearin’ Taj Gibson will do the grunt work under the basket and get dirty on defense while providing efficient inside scoring. 29-year-old Nemanja Bjelica hopes for more opportunities to show off his well-rounded game in his second NBA season.
Karl-Anthony Towns – in just two seasons – has already established himself as one of the NBA’s top centers, averaging a blistering 25 points and 12 boards per game while shooting 54 percent from the floor, 37 percent from 3-point range and 83 percent from the free throw line. Toss in about 3 assists and 1+ blocks for good measure…at age 21. Wait until he figures out what he’s doing. Backup Georgui Dieng is good enough to start for several teams, so he provides quality big-man depth as a rebounder and inside presence.
The addition of veteran former Tom Thibodeau players will benefit this otherwise young team, as they are familiar with the coach’s hard-driving defensive style. And their biggest improvement will be on the defensive side of the ball. After a brief adjustment period, the Wolves should finally book a spot in the NBA postseason for the first time since the Kevin Garnett/Latrell Sprewell-led squad in 2004 advanced to the Western Conference Finals. Pencil these guys in for at least a first-round appearance.
Russell Westbrook did it all last season (31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists per game) for the Thunder on his way to the 2017 Most Valuable Player award. With All-Star reinforcements brought in over the summer, it will be difficult to duplicate last season’s statistics, but it won’t prevent him from remaining one of the league’s fiercest competitors. Not only will his opponents have to match his intensity, his new teammates, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony will as well. 12-year veteran Ray Felton will chip in about 15 minutes per night off the bench as the backup. SG Anthony Roberson is in the league on the strength of his defensive play; Westnrook doesn’t mind taking his portion of shots. Alex Abrines is yet another in a growing population of NBA 3-point specialists. 19-year-old Terrance Ferguson may be ready to contribute later in the season.
SF Paul George brings All-Star credentials to OKC, and he’ll take some of the heat off Westbrook on both ends of the floor. He’s also an underrated passer. Josh Huestis and Kyle Singler, whose shooting has leveled off the last two seasons, will battle for second unit minutes behind George. PF Carmelo Anthony becomes the team’s most natural scorer as soon as he steps on the floor, and though he can be an effective defender when he feels up to it, it has always been sporadic. As the season progresses, however, changing ends and playing effectively in back-to-back games will be an issue. Toronto’s loss of Pat Patterson is OKC’s gain as he’ll become perhaps the most important member of the second unit. Good rebounder and corner 3-point shooter. Jerami Grant is always ready to work and just needs minutes to become a valuable contributor.
Starting center Steven Adams is purposely an irritant to opposing centers, but he’s much more than that, posting really good rebounds-per-minute numbers and playing solid low-post defense. His offensive touches will be negligible going forward. Dakari Johnson will be the primary backup after a couple of years of G-League seasoning. Rugged 37-year-old Nick Collison is back for one more season after seeing his playing time decrease in each of the last eight NBA seasons, but won’t play much.
It will be interesting to see how (or if) the chemistry develops between Westbrook, George and Anthony, three players accustomed to having the ball and who like to go one-on-one. Coach Billy Donovan’s other challenge will be finding consistent bench play. The even bigger challenge will be the Western Conference competition, where several teams can boast multiple All-Stars on their rosters. The Thunder will neither shoot, pass or defend well enough to keep pace with the Warriors, and they’ll have a difficult time advancing past the second round of the playoffs. Prediction: Western Conference semis at best.
Starting point guard Patrick Beverly comes to the Clippers in the Chris Paul trade and brings defensive tenacity. a streaky jumper and the quickness and effort to snag long rebounds. 30-year-old rookie Milos Teodosic is in from CSKA Moscow and has already created a stir during the preseason with his passing ability. He’s not nearly the defender Chris Paul is but he’ll keep the bigs happy with lob passes and more. Second-round pick Juwan Evans can play, too, but won’t see a lot of court time right away. SG Austin Rivers appears to be the starter, but he doesn’t shoot well enough to alter game plans and though he doesn’t defend like his father did, he’s gotten better. Lou Williams is on his fifth team in five years, and he’ll score in bunches off the bench regardless of the jersey he’s wearing. Rookie Sindarius Thornwell hopes his stellar play in the 2017 NCAA Tournament translates to this level.
SF Danilo Gallinari remains an underrated defender and long-distance shooter, though his shot has never lived up to the hype that preceded his rookie season in New York. If he can stay healthy – which, unfortunately is not a given – he’ll give the Clippers another offensive weapon on a gigantic starting front line. Wes Johnson plays all-out but hasn’t shot the ball well enough to warrant more than a bench role. Sam Dekker displayed some athleticism last season as part of Mike D’Antoni’s rotation, but the pace will be slower here. PF Blake Griffin joins the growing list of bigs expanding their range out to the 3-point arc, but his best work is done in the paint. To expect Griffin and Gallinari to play a full season is asking a lot, but would make for a nice forward tandem. Montrezl Harrell plays with force and deserves a chance at serious rotation minutes. Brice Johnson may have to play some backup center to get playing time.
DeAndre Jordan will be happy to know there’s still a point guard around who can find him under the basket, and he’ll continue to be one of the best rebounder/shot-blockers in the NBA. Willie Reed showed some promise in a reserve role for the Miami Heat in 2016-17.
Now that Doc Rivers can devote his full concentration to coaching the Clippers, he’ll have to figure out how to replace the scoring, passing, defense and leadership of the departed Chris Paul. The Clippers will have some slippage, but in Griffin and Jordan and with some help from the new veteran backcourt players, they still have enough left to qualify for the postseason in the top-heavy Western Conference. They’ll battle for lower seeding, but lengthy injuries to key players could actually leave them on the outside. Prediction: First round and out.
PG Ricky Rubio arrives in Utah with his amazing court vision after six seasons in Minnesota. He’s also an underrated defender, but perimeter shooting remains the weakest part of his game, though he is one of the league’s best from the free throw stripe. Raul Neto will back up Rubio while looking to return to the level of play of his rookie season in 2015-16. Dante Exum might be looking at another long absence due to injury. He hasn’t quite lived up to his draft position – Number 5 in 2014 – but he is still young. SG Rodney Hood is the guy expected to step in and soften the blow of losing Gordon Hayward, and he’s capable. Consistency is the key. Alec Burks has already proven he can score at this level. First-rounder Donovan Mitchell has been showing out since summer league and might force his way into the rotation at either guard spot.
Joe Ingles and his feathery shooting touch has worked his way into the Jazz’ starting lineup. He’s also a ball-mover who will pick the pocket of an unsuspecting ballhandler. 16-year veteran Joe Johnson was huge for the Jazz in the postseason, continuing his clutch ways and still showing the ability to improvise in isolation. Thabo Sefalosha and his wingspan are perfect for this defense-oriented squad. PF Derrick Favors is coming off an injury-riddled 2016-17 season, but will look to continue his reliable output on both ends. Favors can score in the mid-teens and could probably average double-figures in boards as well. Jonas Jerebko provides competent relief off the bench.
Rudy Gobert is one of the last remaining big men who can impact a game defensively. His offense is still developing but in 2016-17, he averaged 14 points on 66 percent shooting. He is the Jazz’ most important player. Epke Udoh appeared to be a smaller version of Gobert right out of college, but after five NBA seasons ended up spending several years overseas. He is also an interior defensive presence and a good passer at the position, but offers little offensively. First-round selection Tony Bradley waits his turn.
The Jazz won 51 games and returned to the postseason is 2016-17 after a five-year absence, advancing to the Western Conference semifinals before getting swept by Golden State (no disgrace there). With Gordon Hayward (get well soon, man) now in Boston, the Jazz will need a few returning veterans to replace Hayward’s output. They should have enough to secure a low Western Conference seeding, but will have to fight off several teams to do it. Prediction: First-round loss to Golden State, Houston or San Antonio.
Jamal Murray wins the starting point guard job in his second year. He’ll have his ups and downs but should hold onto the gig unless third-year player Emmanuel Mudiay drastically improves his shooting – a career mark well under 40 percent – and turnover ratio. Gary Harris starts at shooting guard to round out a very young backcourt. Will Barton brings double-figure scoring off the bench. Last year’s first rounder, the offensive-minded Malik Beasley will eventually get minutes, too, but may have to play some small forward.
Veteran Wilson Chandler is still around and trying to remain healthy for a full season, which he has done only once in his 9-year NBA career. When he’s on his game, he can score from all angles and defend. Juan Hernangomez is a better floor-spacer than Chandler, but not as versatile or experienced. New arrival Richard Jefferson lends a hand and some wisdom off the bench as well. PF Paul Millsap temporarily raised Denver’s status as a free-agent destination this summer, and brings two-way professionalism. Trey Lyles is not a bad second-unit option and his game and shooting range is still expanding. Darrell Arthur as a third-stringer speaks to the team depth at the position.
22-year-old Nikola Jokic put it all together in 2016-17, excelling in nearly all phases and making Josef Nurkic, with whom he was in a fierce battle for minutes, expendable. Jokic averaged 5 assists per game and converted 83 percent of his free throws, both impressive for a center. Mason Plumlee is a former NBA starter, and will bring strong bench play; he’s almost as good a post passer as Jokic. Kenneth Faried would probably benefit from a change of scenery – he’s gone from one of the most ferocious young rebounders in the league to third-string center. There are several teams in the league who could use a Faried.
If the talented backcourt kids grow up quickly, Denver will be tough to keep out of the postseason. They’ll probably engage in a season-long battle for the last playoff spot with teams like Portland, New Orleans and Memphis. The addition of Millsap gives them some legitimacy, and Jokic is still improving. Unfortunately, the Nuggets play in the Western Conference and are looking at a short playoff run should they qualify. Prediction: First round and out or last team in the lottery.
PG Damian Lillard is one of the league’s best scoring point guards. His defense has improved, but can still get better. Shabazz Napier brings quickness off the bench. SG C.J. McCollum is one of the league’s most efficient shooting guards (against all odds coming from Lehigh University) who can also run the show when Lillard rests, though he, too, can be a better defender. Evan Turner is a team player who can pass, rebound and defend, but has limited range on his shot. Pat Connaughton plays sparingly but brings athleticism.
SF Moe Harkless is workmanlike and does a little bit of everything, but is not a big scorer. Evan Turner can be used here as well for improved ball movement. Jake Layman will make the infrequent guest appearance. PF Al-Farouq Aminu‘s is one of the league’s more unheralded perimeter defenders. It’s what keeps him on the court in spite of some ghastly shot selection at times, especially from 3-point range. He’ll occasionally break out with a high-scoring game. Noah Vonleh is a hard worker as well, but his lack of offensive moves reduces his minutes. Rookie Caleb Swanigan was rather impressive during summer league play and preseason and brings a well-rounded game with a needed bit of an edge.
Josef Nurkic escaped the job-sharing gig in Denver – the Portland gig is all his. After coming over in a mid-season deal, he gave the Blazers a much-needed inside presence before getting hurt late in the season. Ed Davis provides tough interior play and rebounding but doesn’t score much. Meyers Leonard will play the 4 or 5 and space the floor, but his shooting efficiency dipped in 2016-17. He’ll face a strong challenge for minutes from rookie Zach Collins.
After barely qualifying for the 2016-17 Western Conference playoffs, the Blazers will be in the hunt for a playoff spot all season long. Better defensive intensity in the backcourt and more scoring in the frontcourt will get them there. They can score and they have size, but until they defend nightly, they will always be in a battle for low playoff seeding, even with two scorers the caliber of Lillard and McCollum. It’s really up to them. Prediction: Another season of important early-April games and a short playoff run, if any.
PG Mike Conley continues his efficient, two-way work almost in anonymity and remains one of the best players in the league to never play in the NBA All-Star Game. Mario Chalmers is a solid veteran backup who can defend and has the trust of coach David Fizdale from their championship days in Miami. Andrew Harrison wasn’t bad in the rotation last season, but shot poorly. SG Tyreke Evans can get to the basket and score or dish at any time, but doesn’t have a lot of range on his shot and hasn’t been healthy in several years. Ben McLemore gets a fresh start in Memphis after four difficult seasons in Sacramento; the Griz hope he can find the consistency he displayed in college. Wayne Selden used a strong summer league performance to bid for more minutes at one of the wing positions.
Chandler Parsons was on his way to becoming one of the league’s more versatile small forwards before injuries hit in 2015; his full recovery would give Memphis a strong third option on offense. James Ennis has to fight hard every year to stay on a roster and does that – he was productive off the bench last season. Dillon Brooks made a name for himself at the 2017 NCAA Final Four with his relentless effort, which will serve him well at this level. PF JaMychal Green showed enough in 2016-17 to move veteran Zach Randolph to a bench role. Jarell Martin and rookie Ivan Rabb will battle for backup minutes.
Marc Gasol showed loyalty to his U.S. home city of Memphis back in 2015 by re-signing with the Grizzlies as an unrestricted free agent when he could have gone elsewhere, and he remains one of the league’s most complete centers. in 2016-17 he averaged a career bests in points (19.5) and assists (4.6) and even became a threat from 3-point range. Brandan Wright is a superb backup center, but injuries have limited him to 40 games combined over the last two seasons.
The Grizzlies are now moving on without fan favorite and former All-Star Zach Randolph, but have the misfortune of competing in the NBA’s Western Conference. They’ll remain competitive as long as Conley and Gasol are around; If they could get full, healthy seasons from guys like Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans and Brandan Wright, along with a rejuvenated Ben McLemore, they could be a sleeper. However, all that seems a lot to ask. A couple of breaks could get the Grizzlies close to the 8th seed. The numbers game doesn’t favor them. Prediction: Lottery.
PG Rajon Rondo joins his fifth team in five years after looking like a shoo-in for big bucks a few years ago. He can sill distribute, defend and rebound, and he’s always found a way to be effective without shooting well. Before suffering an injury, he was instrumental in the Bulls giving the Celtics an early-round scare in last season’s playoffs. Jrue Holiday can also run the point, is more of an offensive threat and can play either guard position. Ian Clark will serve as a backup after coming over from Golden State. SG E’Twaun Moore is steady but not one to light up a scoreboard. Tony Allen has carved out a long career frustrating opponents on defense, but he won’t score. Jordan Crawford is streaky-wild, but he can get hot at times.
LIke E’Twaun Moore, SF Dante Cunningham is a journeyman looking at potentially big minutes, especially with Solomon Hill out for several months. Hill’s versatility will be missed. Darius Miller is the other option. PF Anthony Davis is one of the league’s top talents but the Pelicans’ overall lack of success has him playing in obscurity for now. Cheick Diallo showed some promise in his rookie year and will provide relief at the 4.
DeMarcus Cousins came over from Sacramento at the 2017 All-Star break and gives the Pelican’s two premier bigs in a league trending smaller. Cousins has expanded his range and is now one of the top scoring, rebounding and passing big men in the NBA. He’ll even block a shot or two. Alexis Ajinca can board off the bench. Omir Asik was considered one of the league’s top backups a few years back and is currently dealing with an illness.
The Davis-Cousins pairing looks formidable on paper as they will both dominate statistically, but in a league where some teams are close to abandoning the traditional center altogether, there is the issue of running the floor and guarding the perimeter with two bigs on the floor much of the evening. The Pelicans also lack perimeter star power while the competition stockpiles exactly that, but coach Alvin Gentry will be on the hot seat if he doesn’t make this work. Rondo will help if he’s healthy, but the Pelicans will have to fight just for the opportunity to lose to Golden State in the first round. And they’ll need reinforcements to get there. Prediction: Lottery.
Rookie PG Dennis Smith, Jr. is a high-flyer, considered by many to be one of the steals on the 2017 NBA Draft. Growing pains are to be expected as well as highlight-reel moments. Undrafted Yogi Ferrell arrived in Dallas in January 2017 after being released by the Brooklyn Nets and became one of the best individual stories of the season while earning a spot on the All-Rookie Team. J.J. Barea was an integral part of the Mavs’ 2011 championship squad and is still an important reserve, especially with so many young backcourt players. Seth Curry has bounced around and carries the burden of being the “other” Curry, but he took advantage of opportunities last season and looks to have earned a starting role in 2017-18. Devin Harris returns for his 14th season and rounds out a very small backcourt quintet.
Now two years removed from a torn achilles, SF Wesley Matthews remains one of the better defenders in the league at his position, and can also score from long distance. Dorian Finney-Smith had a nice run for awhile in 2016-17 and earned some floor time by outworking opponents. PF Harrison Barnes went from being the 4th option with the Warriors to becoming the Mavericks’ leading scorer at 19 points per game, and is also a top defender. Dwight Powell‘s continued development is crucial to the frontline depth. Josh McRoberts has played in 81 games combined over the past three seasons. That’s too bad – he’s a multi-skilled player who could really help.
Future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki, now 39 years old and in his 20th year in the NBA – all with Dallas – begins it as the starting center, although his minutes will resemble those of a second-unit player. He can still hit perimeter jumpers and always will, but changing ends will become more challenging. Nerlens Noel had an opportunity to become the Mavs’ long-term center of the future, but opted to sign a one-year deal and become an unrestricted free agent next summer. He’ll be hungry, and with minutes and no knee flareups he could become a factor, especially on defense. Salah Mejri compiles impressive rebounding/shot-blocking totals in very limited minutes, but it will be difficult to play him heavy minutes against teams that space the floor.
In today’s NBA Western Conference, starting a rookie (albeit, very gifted) point guard and 39-year-old center is difficult to overcome. The Mavericks have one of the tiniest backcourt ensembles in the NBA, and lots of uncertainty under the basket. The emergence of Noel will be paramount, and coach Rock Carlisle is always worth a couple of wins with the clipboard. Several positive things must happen for the Mavericks to qualify for postseason play: one involves a 19-year-old, the other a guy who turned down $71 million to sign for $4 million. If Smith, Jr. grows up faster than expected and they get anything from Noel, this group is sneaky enough to make things interesting for that last playoff spot. Prediction: Lottery.
Rookie PG Lonzo Ball comes in with high expectations from many sources, but let’s leave this kid alone and let him develop. As soon as he steps onto an NBA court, he becomes one of the league’s best passers, but the jump shot, defense (especially against smaller, quicker guards) and lack of strength will cause him problems at various times throughout his rookie season. Long-term he looks to be the perfect fit in Los Angeles. It’ll just take some time. Tyler Ennis and Alex Caruso will try to keep the fans interested while Ball rests. SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will thrill Laker fans with his defensive intensity and frustrate them with his inconsistent shooting. Former second-round pick Jordan Clarkson has averaged double-figures in scoring in each of his three seasons, and could also see time at point guard. Late first-round pick Josh Hart waits his turn.
Brandon Ingram showed plenty of versatility as a rookie in 2016-17, playing multiple positions and holding his own at each, but struggled with his shooting from all areas of the floor. He’ll have more responsibility in his second year. Corey Brewer has seemingly not gained an ounce since his University of Florida days, nor has he lost any of his energy after 10 NBA seasons. Luol Deng hasn’t been the same since his Chicago days, but could probably be an asset to a contending team. PF Julius Randle has drawn (probably unfair) comparisons to Zach Randolph; he can definitely board and has become an effective interior passer. High-flying Larry Nance is bidding for more minutes, and the way he flies around the court, he’ll get noticed. Rookie Kyle Kuzma was noticed plenty during the summer league play and preseason, and coach Luke Walton will have to somehow find him minutes in a crowded frontcourt.
Brook Lopez comes to Los Angeles after nine years of mostly inconspicuous balling in the outskirts of New York City. Now he will play every night before a rabid fan base who will appreciate his ability to score (even from deep these days) and will destroy him for his low rebound count and late defensive rotations. Andrew Bogut is the best center on the roster when he isn’t injured, but he’s always injured. 20-year-old Ivica Zubac had a brief run late last season that had some calling him the Lakers’ center of the future. This may still be the case, but minutes won’t be there this season unless several bigs are out.
The Lakers have some young talent, enough to have made a rising player like D’Angelo Russell expendable after only two seasons, so the future looks bright. The present, however, will test the patience of Lakers’ supporters pining for their team’s immediate return to prominence. They’ll be in position to add at least two top free agents at season’s end, so the wait could be a short one. They’ll have to go through another year of watching their young players develop; Lonzo Ball will – at the very least – be entertaining. They’ll improve as the season progresses, but are lottery-bound.
George Hill brings disciplined point guard play to Sacramento. Nothing spectacular, just runs the show, can score, doesn’t turn the ball over and defends. Rookie lottery-pick De’Aaron Fox will eventually inherit the starting role, especially if he makes shots. He’s already shown the willingness to defend and is cat-quick. Frank Mason III will not sit quietly, having won the Wooden Award in 2017 for college basketball’s top player, but the backcourt is crowded for now. SG Garrett Temple is the defensive-minded guard the Kings need to find minutes for if they are serious about changing their reputation. Buddy Hield finally got comfortable with his shooting in his rookie year after a slow start, but he’ll have to add more facets to his game. Bogdan Bogdanovic will look to provide scoring from the shooting guard and small forward positions. Last year’s 22nd pick, Malachi Richardson is hoping for a chance as well but is facing long odds.
First-round pick Justin Jackson walks off the campus at the University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill and into the starting small forward role with the Sacramento Knngs. Unless he flops or one of the other wing players spills over, he’ll get serious minutes. He is backed up by 40-year-old Vince Carter who doesn’t have many minutes left on those legs he still uses to dunk occasionally. 17-year veteran power forward Zach Randolph remains a scoring/rebounding marvel, having lost none of his speed or athleticism since joining the league in 2001. Skal Labissiere is the future at the position and improved dramatically towards the end of last season, including a 32-point, 11-rebound effort against Phoenix in March. Rookie and 20th pick Harry Giles is considered by scouts to have lottery-level talent, but has knee issues.
In Sacramento, the starting center position is Willie Cauley-Stein‘s to lose, known primarily as a defender coming out of Kentucky in 2015, he has shown enough offensive acumen to stay on the court, though he’ll likely never be a top scorer. Promising 20-year-old Giorgios Papagiannis may eventually give Cauley-Stein a run for his money for minutes, but not this year. Kosta Koufos is an adequate NBA backup center, which is no disgrace.
2017-18 will be yet another developmental year for the Sacramento Kings, though they added some veterans to help teach the youngsters some of the game’s nuances. During the second half of the season Kings’ fans will get to see more of the franchise’s future in action. There’s young talent at all positions, so after securing yet another reservation at the draft lottery in 2018 – their 12th straight – perhaps the Kings’ fortunes will begin to change, though they could play spoiler late in the season for playoff contenders who underestimate them.
Eric Bledsoe is one of the most physically-imposing guards in the NBA and can overpower most at his position. He’s more of a scoring point guard and would be dynamite at shooting guard were he about four inches taller. Tyler Innis was dynamite when the opportunity arose in March, posting a 34-point game and five efforts of 10 or more assists. Mike James makes the cut but will play when others are out. SG Devin Booker‘s 70-point outburst in Boston on March 24 was merely a scary preview of what this 20-year-old is capable of once he figures out what he’s doing. Troy Daniels will get backup minutes to Booker, especially while Brandon Knight recovers from an ACL injury.
Mid-range scorer T.J. Warren will be often overlooked during discussions regarding the Suns’ young core of talented players, but he can play. He’ll be pushed for minutes by 2017 lottery pick Josh Jackson from Kansas, so something has to give. Another youngster, Derrick Jones, Jr. will only play in lopsided contests but like Ennis, showed some promise in late -season games in 2016-17. PF Marquese Chriss did a little of everything last season in his rookie year: had five blocks in one game, 27 points in another, 13 boards in another and six turnovers in yet another. The 20-year-old Chriss is backed up by the 19-year-old Dragan Bender, another potential do-everything type once he gets experience. Jared Dudley is the veteran voice of reason on this young squad, and one of the few Suns who can defend consistently at this level.
Seems that a contending team would be able to find use for a defensive-minded center like Tyson Chandler, who is presumably manning the starting spot temporarily until Alex Len is ready for full-time duty. Chandler is simply mismatched on a team with this many bad defensive players. Len is probably as ready as any of the youngsters on this roster to play big minutes and take his lumps. Good rebounder and shot-blocker. Offensively, he’s strictly an inside player. At age 24, he’s one of the graybeards of the young core. Alan Williams showed some high-flying potential last season, but is recovering from serious injury.
There are some veteran players scattered throughout this young roster, but the kids should get most of the minutes and they’ll do lots of losing, primarily due to inexperience and defensive deficiencies. They also have enough talent at all positions to spring a surprise or two against stronger teams when everything clicks. The core of this team is all under 25 years old. If they’re allowed to grow together they’ll make some noise in a couple of years. The lottery pick they’ll add in June 2018 can only help.
So after all that…
Finals Prediction: Phoenix over Atlanta in seven games.
Golden State over Cleveland in 6 (not exactly going out on a limb here…).
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